The 1. FC Union Berlin Files
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Predictions

1. FC Union Berlin

Polymarket and Altus Alpha Predictions

Tools for professional traders.

Next Match
Leverkusen vs Union
Kickoff
Sat 5 Sept, 13:30
Oracle
66.0% / 18.7% / 15.3%
Akte Union — Club-Dossier 1. FC Union Berlin
Predictions
Deutsch
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Union's win probability against Leverkusen?
The Pinnacle Oracle calculates 15.3% win probability for Union (away).
Where does Union stand in the table?
Union are 8th with 1 points after 1 matchdays. Goal difference: 0.
What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.

Pinnacle Oracle

Oracle Pipeline BETA

Four stages, one question: where does Union's probability come from — and what moves it?

Leverkusen vs Union · Sat, 09/05, 01:30 PM

1

Base Model

Table + ppg

Home7.8%
Draw24%
Away68.2%

Union: 68.2%

2

Adjustments

Statistical Intelligence

  • ⚪ Union away 0.0pp
  • ⚪ Versus top-6 opponent 0.0pp
Home7.8%
Draw24%
Away68.2%

Union: 68.2% (0.0pp)

3

Pinnacle Oracle

Vig-removed

Home66%
Draw18.7%
Away15.3%

Union: 15.3%

4

Smart Money

Line movement

Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.

Model vs. Pinnacle: +52.9pp — Pipeline model sees Union stronger than Pinnacle

The pipeline is transparent: Stage 1 is a simple table model, Stage 2 applies significant splits from Statistical Intelligence, Stage 3 shows what Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker in the world) says. Stage 4 (sharp-money line movement) will follow once we persist line history.

Source: Pinnacle via TheOddsAPI · Updated: Wed 2 Sept, 06:00

Leverkusen vs Union Sat 5 Sept, 13:30
Leverkusen 66.0% 1.46
Draw 18.7% 5.15
Union 15.3% 6.32
Spread Leverkusen -1.25 @ 1.92
Total O/U 3.25 @ 1.87 / 2.02
Margin: 3.73%
Union vs FC Schalke 04 Fri 11 Sept, 18:30
Union 45.1% 2.11
Draw 25.5% 3.73
FC Schalke 04 29.4% 3.23
Spread FC Schalke 04 +0.25 @ 2.00
Total O/U 3 @ 1.91 / 1.93
Margin: 5.16%

Value Signals

No active Polymarket events for 1. FC Union Berlin. Oracle data only.

Community Forecasts

Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.

All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →

Bundesliga Table · Matchday 1

# Club MP W D L GD Pts
1 Bayern 1 1 0 0 +4 3
2 Freiburg 1 1 0 0 +3 3
3 Augsburg 1 1 0 0 +3 3
4 Leipzig 1 1 0 0 +3 3
5 BVB 1 1 0 0 +2 3
6 Koeln 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Elversberg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Union 1 0 1 0 0 1
9 Eintracht 1 0 1 0 0 1
10 Paderborn 1 0 1 0 0 1
11 Mainz 1 0 1 0 0 1
12 Leverkusen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
13 Hoffenheim 1 0 0 1 -1 0
14 HSV 1 0 0 1 -2 0
15 Werder 1 0 0 1 -3 0
16 Schalke 04 1 0 0 1 -3 0
17 Gladbach 1 0 0 1 -3 0
18 Stuttgart 1 0 0 1 -4 0