Base Model
Table + ppg
Home58.3%
Draw24%
Away17.7%
Union: 58.3%
Predictions
Methodology
Pinnacle sets the sharpest odds in the world — margin under 3%. We remove the vig and normalize to 100%: that's the Oracle. Where Polymarket prices deviate from the Oracle, Value Signals emerge. Delta from 3pp = Watch, from 5pp = Trade, from 10pp = Strong Signal.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is Union's win probability against Wolfsburg?
- The Pinnacle Oracle calculates 45.2% win probability for Union (home).
- Where does Union stand in the table?
- Union are 11th with 32 points after 29 matchdays. Goal difference: -17.
- What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
- The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.
Pinnacle Oracle
Oracle Pipeline BETA
Four stages, one question: where does Union's probability come from — and what moves it?
Union vs Wolfsburg · Sat, 04/18, 01:30 PM
Adjustments
Statistical Intelligence
- No adjustments apply to this match
Home58.3%
Draw24%
Away17.7%
Union: 58.3% (0.0pp)
Pinnacle Oracle
Vig-removed
Home45.2%
Draw26.1%
Away28.8%
Union: 45.2%
Smart Money
Line movement
Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.
Source: Pinnacle via TheOddsAPI · Updated: Wed 15 Apr, 18:00
Union vs WolfsburgSat 18 Apr, 13:30
Union45.2%2.14
Draw26.1%3.71
Wolfsburg28.8%3.36
SpreadUnion-0.25 @ 1.87
TotalO/U 2.5 @ 1.89 / 2.00
Margin: 3.45%
Leipzig vs UnionFri 24 Apr, 18:30
Leipzig69.9%1.35
Draw18.4%5.13
Union11.7%8.06
SpreadLeipzig-1.5 @ 2.00
TotalO/U 3 @ 1.88 / 1.95
Margin: 5.97%
Value Signals
No active Polymarket events for 1. FC Union Berlin. Oracle data only.
Community Forecasts
Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.
All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →Kelly Criterion Calculator
Edge —
Full Kelly —
Recommended —
No edge — no trade recommended.
Kelly Criterion: Theoretically optimal bet sizing with known edge. 1/4 Kelly is the professional standard — reduces variance and drawdown risk at the cost of returns.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
Monte Carlo Season Forecast BETA
Remaining season simulated 10,000× (6 matchdays, 54 matches). Strength model, no market anchor.
Bayern's final points distribution
Median88 Pkt
Mean87.5 Pkt
90% interval[82, 92]
Champion99.81%
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
50
Each bar = how often Bayern reached this points total in the simulation
European places
| # | Club | Pts | Median | 90% interval | Champion | UCL (Top 4) | UEL (Pos 5)* | UECL (Pos 6)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern | 76 | 88 | [82, 92] | 99.81% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | BVB | 64 | 75 | [70, 80] | 0.19% | 99.99% | 0.01% | 0% |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 56 | 68 | [62, 72] | 0% | 89.08% | 9.17% | 1.75% |
| 4 | Leipzig | 56 | 66 | [61, 72] | 0% | 79.96% | 16.19% | 3.82% |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 52 | 62 | [57, 67] | 0% | 17.29% | 41.17% | 40.55% |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 51 | 62 | [57, 67] | 0% | 13.68% | 33.37% | 51.99% |
| 7 | Eintracht | 42 | 52 | [46, 57] | 0% | 0% | 0.09% | 1.64% |
| 8 | Freiburg | 40 | 49 | [44, 54] | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.25% |
*UEL/UECL: table positions 5+6. The actual competition tickets depend on the DFB-Pokal winner — if the cup winner is UCL-qualified, the spots shift down.
Bottom of the table
| # | Club | Pts | Median | 90% interval | Playoff (Pos 16) | Relegated (17/18) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Heidenheim | 19 | 24 | [20, 29] | 3.43% | 96.14% |
| 17 | Wolfsburg | 21 | 26 | [22, 31] | 10.45% | 87.75% |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 25 | 31 | [26, 36] | 58.62% | 14.61% |
| 15 | Werder | 28 | 34 | [30, 39] | 17.02% | 1.24% |
| 14 | Gladbach | 30 | 36 | [32, 42] | 4.35% | 0.12% |
| 13 | Koeln | 30 | 37 | [32, 43] | 3.19% | 0.12% |
| 12 | HSV | 31 | 37 | [33, 43] | 2.08% | 0.02% |
| 11 | Union | 32 | 39 | [34, 44] | 0.69% | 0% |
| 9 | Mainz | 33 | 40 | [36, 45] | 0.06% | 0% |
| 10 | Augsburg | 33 | 40 | [36, 45] | 0.11% | 0% |
Methodology: Synthetischer Restspielplan (echte Fixtures nicht in Datenpipeline). Strength-Modell aus Tabellen-ppg, kein Markt-Anchor. Independent simulation, kein Momentum.
When is the championship decided? BETA
Matchday 29 of 34, 5 remaining.
Current state
Bayern 32 pts
vs. BVB 64 pts
Lead +-32
Mathematical clinch (worst case)
❌ Not yet. In the worst case (BVB wins everything) Bayern still needs 48 points = at least 16 wins.
Probability clinch
Monte Carlo 0%
Polymarket —%
Status Unlikely
Historic comparison — last 5 seasons
| Season | Decided at | Δ | Note |
|---|
Build Your Edge BETA
Think Bayern wobbles more (or less) after UCL than our model says? Drag the sliders and watch Bayern's probability change. 100% = our default, 0% = ignore factor, 200% = double-weight.
No adjustments for this match
Signal Classifier BETA
Where our models diverge from the market — sorted by gap size. Thresholds: <3pp Watch · 3-5pp Trade · 5-10pp Strong · 10-15pp Strong+ · >15pp Arbitrage.
| Market | Our model | Market | Δ | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union vs Wolfsburg — Bayern Sieg | Pipeline 58.3% | Pinnacle 45.2% | +13.1pp | Strong+ |
Reading: Positive Δ = our model is higher than the market (Bayern undervalued). Negative Δ = market is higher (Bayern overvalued).
Methodology: Pinnacle is the sharpest live odds in the world — larger Δ usually indicates model error rather than real edge. Polymarket has thin liquidity on some markets. BETA, not a betting signal.
Predictions 101–108 · Curriculum
Eight lessons from beginner basics to pro methodology. Deep content with calculators and quizzes lives on altusalpha.com. Here are the teasers.
What are prediction markets?
Learn more — soon on altusalpha.comBookmaker vs exchange vs prediction market
Learn more — soon on altusalpha.comUnderstanding the Oracle
Learn more — soon on altusalpha.comKelly Criterion — the formula
Learn more — soon on altusalpha.comSpotting value signals
Learn more — soon on altusalpha.comPortfolio thinking
Learn more — soon on altusalpha.comDirectional alpha — intro
Learn more — soon on altusalpha.comTrack record & Brier score
Learn more — soon on altusalpha.comComing soon
Paper Trading System
Akte Prediction League
Bundesliga Table · Matchday 29
| # | Club | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern | 29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | +78 | 76 |
| 2 | BVB | 29 | 19 | 7 | 3 | +31 | 64 |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | +22 | 56 |
| 4 | Leipzig | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | +20 | 56 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | +20 | 52 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | +14 | 51 |
| 7 | Eintracht | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -5 | 40 |
| 9 | Mainz | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 33 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -17 | 33 |
| 11 | Union | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | -17 | 32 |
| 12 | HSV | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | -13 | 31 |
| 13 | Koeln | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Gladbach | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 | Werder | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -25 | 25 |
| 17 | Wolfsburg | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -26 | 21 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 29 | 4 | 7 | 18 | -32 | 19 |
Predictions for Other Clubs
Oracle predictions and Value Signals for all 21 Bundesliga clubs in the Akte network.
Community Forecasts
Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.
predictions.aktebundesliga.net →