"Bayern struggles against top-6 opponents"
Gegen Top 6: 1.042 ppg · gegen Rest: 1.227 ppg (Δ -0.185).
Prediction relevance: Top-6-Gegner haben keinen messbaren Sondereffekt.
At a glance
Union sit 8th after matchday 1 with 1 points (0W 1D 0L, goal diff 0). Last 5 form: D (1/15 pts). Next opponent: Leverkusen (12th).
Top Scorers
Bundesliga Top Scorers Season 28321
- 1
Yuito Suzuki3 Goals - 2
Younes Ebnoutalib3 Goals - 3
Thijs Dallinga2 Goals - 4
Igor Matanovic1 Goals - 5
Lukas Petkov1 Goals
| # | Player | Club | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Leopold Querfeld | Union | 1 |
| 7 | Anton Kade | Augsburg | 1 |
| 8 | Rodrigo Ribeiro | Augsburg | 1 |
| 9 | Tim Skarke | Union | 1 |
| 10 | Christian Kofane | Leverkusen | 1 |
Form & Momentum
Union — Form & Home/Away
Last 5
D
Home
1 Pts
Away
0 Pts
Last result: Draw. Last 5 form: D.
The form of the last five matches is the most important leading indicator for short-term bets. A team on a three-match win streak is significantly underpriced when the odds movement hasn't yet caught up with the momentum. The Pinnacle Oracle weights this form at roughly 30 percent against table position (40 percent), home/away splits (20 percent) and opponent strength (10 percent).
Assists & Card Ranking
Bundesliga Top Assists
- 1
Ismael Saibari2 Assists - 2
Tidiam Gomis2 Assists - 3
Joshua Kimmich2 Assists - 4
Josip Juranovic2 Assists - 5
Niklas Beste1 Assists
| # | Player | Club | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Linton Maina | Koeln | 1 |
| 7 | Lukas Petkov | Elversberg | 1 |
| 8 | Maximilian Beier | BVB | 1 |
| 9 | Fabian Rieder | Augsburg | 1 |
| 10 | Igor Matanovic | Freiburg | 1 |
Bundesliga Card Ranking (Yellow + Red×3)
- 1 Ron Schallenberg0 1
- 2 Samuele Inácio0 1
- 3
Grischa Prömel1 0 - 4
Phillipp Mwene1 0 - 5
Jeff Chabot1 0
| # | Player | Club | Y | R | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Julian Ryerson | BVB | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Michel Aebischer | Union | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Min-jae Kim | Bayern | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Facundo Medina | Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Albert Sambi Lokonga | HSV | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Statistical Splits BETA
What actually moves Bayern's result — and what's myth. Bootstrap confidence intervals from 68 matches of the Kompany-Ära.
| Split | Group A | Group B | Δ ppg | 95% CI | p-value | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home games vs. away games | Home | Away | +0.21 | [-0.41, 0.79] | 0.53 | ⚪ |
| Versus top-6 opponents vs. rest of the league | Vs top 6 | Vs rest | -0.18 | [-0.80, 0.42] | 0.56 | ⚪ |
| With vs. without Danilho Doekhi in the starting XI | With Danilho Doekhi | Without Danilho Doekhi | +1.16 | — | — | ⬜ |
| With vs. without Rani Khedira in the starting XI | With Rani Khedira | Without Rani Khedira | -0.04 | [-1.38, 1.24] | 0.94 | 🟡 |
| With vs. without Frederik Rönnow in the starting XI | With Frederik Rönnow | Without Frederik Rönnow | -0.51 | [-1.45, 0.42] | 0.29 | 🟡 |
| With vs. without Diogo Leite in the starting XI | With Diogo Leite | Without Diogo Leite | +0.38 | [-0.35, 1.05] | 0.30 | ⚪ |
| With vs. without Leopold Querfeld in the starting XI | With Leopold Querfeld | Without Leopold Querfeld | -0.39 | [-1.04, 0.26] | 0.24 | 🟡 |
| Heavy week (after UCL/intl. break) vs. normal week | Heavy week | Normal week | -1.16 | — | — | ⬜ |
| After UCL midweek vs. without UCL before | After UCL | No UCL | -1.16 | — | — | ⬜ |
| Full strength (0 absences) vs. 2+ key-player absences | 0 absences | 2+ absences | -0.43 | [-1.40, 0.53] | 0.40 | 🟡 |
Reading: 🟢 statistically significant · 🟡 indicative (sample or effect too small) · ⚪ no effect detectable · ⬜ untested
ppg = points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss). Δ ppg = difference in ppg between the two groups. 95% CI = bootstrap confidence interval (10,000 resamples). p-value < 0.05 = statistically significant at n ≥ 20.
Methodology: Single-Regime-Analyse (nur Kompany-Ära). xG fehlt im Plan und ist nicht enthalten. Bootstrap-CIs statt parametrischer Tests.
Not in dataset: xG, PPDA, Distance Covered
Myth Check BETA
What fans believe — and what the data says. Every myth is tested against real match data.
"Midweek UCL games cost points"
Indikativ: Nach CL 0 ppg, ohne CL 1.162 ppg.
Prediction relevance: Kein klares Adjustment.
"Home games are different"
Heim: 1.265 ppg · Auswärts: 1.059 ppg (Δ 0.206).
Prediction relevance: Heimvorteil ist nicht überdurchschnittlich.
Data Analysis
Relegation zone matchday 1: Schalke 04 (16th, 0 pts), Gladbach (17th, 0 pts), Stuttgart (18th, 0 pts). Union are 1 points clear of the relegation place. Points per game: 1.00.
This analysis rotates with every matchday through eight data-driven templates: league leadership, relegation battle, Champions League race, home/away splits, form trends, attack/defence, factual summary and overall view. Every statement is grounded in SportsMonks and Pinnacle data — no speculation, no hallucination.
What the data doesn't say
Table, form and odds show the status quo. They say nothing about whether a coach is on the verge of being sacked, a key player is injured, or the board is internally under pressure. This is exactly where the Predictions page comes in: there season markets (Polymarket), transfer rumours and schedule strength feed into the assessment — factors that don't show up in any standard statistic.
The 1. FC Union Berlin File in turn provides the historical context: which crises has the club survived, which not. Anyone moving money on Bundesliga markets needs all three layers — hard stats, forward markets and institutional memory.
Frequently Asked
- Where do Union currently stand?
- 8th with 1 points after matchday 1 (0W 1D 0L, goal diff 0).
- Who is Union's next opponent?
- Leverkusen, kickoff on 2026-09-05.
- Who is the Bundesliga top scorer?
- Yuito Suzuki (Freiburg) with 3 goals in the 28321 season.
- Will Union be relegated?
- Union are currently 1 points clear of the relegation places.
Related
The data shows the status quo. What does this mean for the season?
- Predictions & Forecasts — title probability, transfers, schedule strength
- The 1. FC Union Berlin File — history, scandals, triumphs