# Akte Union — Intelligence & Predictions Context
# Generated: 2026-09-23T07:06:18.112Z
# Source: SportMonks (standings, fixtures), Pinnacle (odds), Polymarket (markets)
# Tier: T2 (4 narrative variants)

## Club
Name: 1. FC Union Berlin
Short: Union
Nickname: die Eisernen
Domain: akteunion.com

## Current State (Matchday 4)
Position: 17
Points: 1
Record: 0W 1D 3L
Goal difference: -13
Form (last 5): D-L-L-L

## Next Match
Augsburg vs Gladbach
Kickoff: 2026-05-09T13:30:00Z
Pinnacle Oracle: 46.3% / 25.9% / 27.9%

## Season Markets
n/a

## Methodology
Pinnacle Oracle: bookmaker margin removed, normalized to 100%.
Refresh interval: 6 hours.
4 narrative templates rotate by matchday (md % 4).

## Statistical Intelligence Tools (BETA)
Statistical Splits: 9 deskriptive Splits (Heim/Auswaerts, Top6, Schluesselspieler, CL-Woche, Belastungswoche) mit Bootstrap-95%-CIs (10k Iterationen). Quelle: SportMonks Match-History Kompany-Aera.
Mythen-Check: Kuratiertes Verdict fuer 3 populaere Annahmen ("Ohne Kane geht nichts", "Heimvorteil", "Englische Wochen kosten Punkte").
Match-Cluster: K-Means k=4 + PCA Top 2 Eigenvektoren auf 10-dim Feature-Vektoren. Vier Spieltypen: Demolition / Dominanz / Arbeitssieg / Knapper Sieg.
Oracle Pipeline (Predictions): 4 Stages — Base Model (Tabelle/ppg) → Adjustments (Splits) → Pinnacle → Smart Money. Ppg^1.8 Strength + 0.30 HFA + relatives Dampening.
Monte Carlo Saisonprognose: 10.000 Simulationen der Restsaison, synthetischer Spielplan, Outputs Meister/CL/Pos5/Pos6/Relegation/Abstieg pro Club.
Konvergenz-Tracker: Mathematischer Worst-Case-Clinch + Wahrscheinlichkeits-Clinch (Monte Carlo + Polymarket).
Build Your Edge: User-Slider 0-200% pro Adjustment-Faktor, LocalStorage-Persistenz.
Signal Classifier: Edge-Klassifikation Modell vs Markt nach festen Schwellen (Watch <3pp / Trade 3-5pp / Strong 5-10pp / Strong+ 10-15pp / Arbitrage >15pp).

## URLs
https://akteunion.com/de/intelligence/
https://akteunion.com/en/intelligence/
https://akteunion.com/de/predictions/
https://akteunion.com/en/predictions/
https://akteunion.com/de/keywords/
https://akteunion.com/en/keywords/